Mesa Adaptive MA In Focus for Alico Inc (ALCO)

Alico Inc (ALCO) are in focus today as the charts are revealing that the Mesa Adaptive Moving Average (MAMA) is holding steady above the FAMA, or Fractional Moving Average.  This environment typically indicates that there might be a buying opportunity aligning in technicals.  When there are crossovers between the FAMA and MAMA, the shares are often widely traded.  When the MAMA crosses above the FAMA, it means that the shares are likely to move higher.  Conversely the opposite occurs when the MAMA crosses below the FAMA.  The Mesa Moving Average was first mentioned by John Ehlers in a paper published in a 2001 edition of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine.  The below was excerpted from the publication,

“The MESA Adaptive Moving Average (MAMA) adapts to price movement based on the rate of change of phase as measured by the Hilbert Transform Discriminator (Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine, December 2000). This method features a fast attack average and a slow decay average so that composite average rapidly ratchets behind price changes and holds the average value until the next ratchet occurs.”

Individual investors might be digging a little deeper into the playbook in order to create a winning plan for the remainder of the calendar year. The diligent investor typically has a portfolio that is diversified and ready to encounter any unforeseen market action. Even after creating the well-planned portfolio with expected returns, nobody can be absolutely sure that those returns will be seen. Setting realistic expectations can help the investor from becoming discouraged if the original plan runs into a bit of a snag. Of course every investor would like to enter the stock market and see sizeable profits right off the bat. This may only be wishful thinking for investors who aren’t ready to put in the time and energy to make sure the overall strategy stays on track and the portfolio stays properly managed.

Turning to some additional indicators on the charts, Alico Inc (ALCO) currently has a 50-day Moving Average of 32.68, the 200-day Moving Average is 29.95, and the 7-day is noted at 33.94. Following moving averages with different time frames may help offer a wide variety of stock information. A longer average like the 200-day may serve as a smoothing tool when striving to evaluate longer term trends. On the flip side, a shorter MA like the 50-day may help with identifying shorter term trading signals. Moving averages may also function well as a tool for determining support and resistance levels.

Traders may be relying in part on technical stock analysis. Alico Inc (ALCO) currently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -196.25. Despite the name, CCI can be used on other investment tools such as stocks. The CCI was designed to typically stay within the reading of -100 to +100. Traders may use the indicator to determine stock trends or to identify overbought/oversold conditions. A CCI reading above +100 would imply that the stock is overbought and possibly ready for a correction. On the other hand, a reading of -100 would imply that the stock is oversold and possibly set for a rally.

At the time of writing, the 14-day ADX for Alico Inc (ALCO) is 27.49. Many technical chart analysts believe that an ADX value over 25 would suggest a strong trend. A reading under 20 would indicate no trend, and a reading from 20-25 would suggest that there is no clear trend signal. The ADX is typically plotted along with two other directional movement indicator lines, the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI). Some analysts believe that the ADX is one of the best trend strength indicators available.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of multiple popular technical indicators created by J. Welles Wilder. Wilder introduced RSI in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” which was published in 1978. RSI measures the magnitude and velocity of directional price movements. The data is represented graphically by fluctuating between a value of 0 and 100. The indicator is computed by using the average losses and gains of a stock over a certain time period. RSI can be used to help spot overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI reading over 70 would be considered overbought, and a reading under 30 would indicate oversold conditions. A level of 50 would indicate neutral market momentum. The 14-day RSI is currently sitting at 44.11, the 7-day is at 30.01, and the 3-day is spotted at 15.73.

Investors may be trying to figure out how much risk they are able to handle with their current stock holdings. Taking on too much risk can put unnecessary weight on the shoulders of even the sturdiest investors. On the flip side, investors who play it too safe may be shaking their heads and wondering what might have been. Finding that delicate risk balance can turn out to be the difference between sinking and swimming in the equity markets. It is highly important for investors to understand exactly what risks they are taking when buying and selling stocks. Knowing these risks may help avoid disaster down the line. Once the risk is calculated, investors should have an easier go at narrowing in on finding the right stocks to add to the portfolio. 

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