Peeling Back the Earnings Layers For Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN), Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX:IRON)

The Earnings to Price yield of Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN) is -0.249011.  This is calculated by taking the earnings per share and dividing it by the last closing share price.  This is one of the most popular methods investors use to evaluate a company’s financial performance.  Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company.  The Earnings Yield for Monarca Minerals Inc. TSXV:MMN is -0.085205.  Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company.  Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value.  The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN) is -0.222943.

For any technician, the trend is a major aspect of stock trading. The trend is the dominant movement in direction of a stock’s price. When discussing the trend in terms of stock price, the assumption is that the trend is expected to continue over a certain period of time. Obviously there is no guarantee that a defined trend will continue, but technical analysts will scour the charts looking for signs of a developed trend to help make the best possible decisions. Seasoned chart watchers are typically able to spot if a trend is up, down, or sideways. Learning how to trade the trend is another part of the process that traders may spend years perfecting.  

Quant Scores/Key Ratios

Now we’ll turn to some key quant data and ratios. The Current Ratio of Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN) is 0.04. The Current Ratio is used by investors to determine whether a company can pay short term and long term debts. The current ratio looks at all the liquid and non-liquid assets compared to the company’s total current liabilities. A high current ratio indicates that the company might have trouble managing their working capital. A low current ratio (when the current liabilities are higher than the current assets) indicates that the company may have trouble paying their short term obligations.

Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN)’s Leverage Ratio was recently noted as 0.076814. This ratio is calculated by dividing total debt by total assets plus total assets previous year, divided by two. The leverage of a company is relative to the amount of debt on the balance sheet. This ratio is often viewed as one measure of the financial health of a firm.

The Gross Margin Score is calculated by looking at the Gross Margin and the overall stability of the company over the course of 8 years. The score is a number between one and one hundred (1 being best and 100 being the worst). The Gross Margin Score of Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN) is 50.00000. The more stable the company, the lower the score. If a company is less stable over the course of time, they will have a higher score.

At the time of writing, Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN) has a Piotroski F-Score of 3. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN) has an M-score Beneish of -999.000000. This M-score model is a little known investment tool that was developed by Messod Beneish in order to detect manipulation of financial statements. The score uses a combination of eight different variables. The specifics of the variables and formula can be found in the Beneish paper “The Detection of Earnings Manipulation”.

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN) is 60.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN) is 57.

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price.  The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital.  The MF Rank of Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN) is 13233.  A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in.  The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

Shifting gears, we can see that Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN) has a Q.i. Value of 50.00000. The Q.i. Value ranks companies using four ratios. These ratios consist of EBITDA Yield, FCF Yield, Liquidity, and Earnings Yield. The purpose of the Q.i. Value is to help identify companies that are the most undervalued. Typically, the lower the value, the more undervalued the company tends to be.

Price Index/Share Movement

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN) presently has a 10 month price index of 1.71429. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 1.50000, the 24 month is 0.46154, and the 36 month is 0.48000. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 1.20000, the 3 month is 1.09091, and the 1 month is currently 0.85714.

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN) is 115.297600.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of Monarca Minerals Inc. (TSXV:MMN) is 177.503400.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 178.964400.

Even for seasoned investors, it can be natural to become wary when certain stocks are tanking in the stock portfolio. The knee jerk reaction can be to immediately change up the portfolio mix to help rectify the situation. Sometimes changes may need to be made, but often times, resisting the urge to make changes based on temporary downturns may prove to help the longer-term health of the stock portfolio. Investors may find themselves in the same predicament when markets are heading higher and every stock seems to be a winner. The impulse might be to double down and buy even more shares of a name that has been over performing recently. Once again, sometimes this may work out, but there will also be times when stocks have finished the run and adding to the position may end up nullifying previous gains if momentum swings back the other way.

Here will take a quick scan of Earnings Yield information on shares of Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX:IRON). Currently, the Earnings to Price (Yield) is -0.169354, Earnings Yield is -0.056735, and Earnings Yield 5 year average is -0.403061. Earnings yield provides a way for investors to help measure returns. Investors may choose to compare the earnings yield of stocks to money market instruments, treasuries, or bonds. The firm will look to it’s next scheduled report date to try to improve on these numbers.

When doing stock research, there is plenty of easily measureable data regarding publically traded companies. There is also plenty of information that is not easily measured such as competitive advantage, quality of staff, and company reputation. Because there are forces such as the human element that come into play when selecting stocks, prices may not always move as expected. Even after crunching all the numbers and digging deep into a specific company, the stock’s performance still might not match expectations. Investors may realize that sometimes perception can be more powerful than reality. Human emotions can change very rapidly, and so can the prevailing market sentiment as well.

Checking in on some valuation rankings, Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX:IRON) has a Value Composite score of 60. Developed by James O’Shaughnessy, the VC score uses five valuation ratios. These ratios are price to earnings, price to cash flow, EBITDA to EV, price to book value, and price to sales. The VC is displayed as a number between 1 and 100. In general, a company with a score closer to 0 would be seen as undervalued, and a score closer to 100 would indicate an overvalued company. Adding a sixth ratio, shareholder yield, we can view the Value Composite 2 score which is currently sitting at 66.

FCF

Turning to Free Cash Flow Growth (FCF Growth) is the free cash flow of the current year minus the free cash flow from the previous year, divided by last year’s free cash flow.  The FCF Growth of Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX:IRON) is -0.130401.  Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash produced by the company minus capital expenditure.  This cash is what a company uses to meet its financial obligations, such as making payments on debt or to pay out dividends.  The Free Cash Flow Score (FCF Score) is a helpful tool in calculating the free cash flow growth with free cash flow stability – this gives investors the overall quality of the free cash flow.  The FCF Score of Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX:IRON) is 0.800271.  Experts say the higher the value, the better, as it means that the free cash flow is high, or the variability of free cash flow is low or both.

Watching some historical volatility numbers on shares of Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX:IRON), we can see that the 12 month volatility is presently 65.918100. The 6 month volatility is 62.647900, and the 3 month is spotted at 74.372000. Following volatility data can help measure how much the stock price has fluctuated over the specified time period. Although past volatility action may help project future stock volatility, it may also be vastly different when taking into account other factors that may be driving price action during the measured time period.  Heading into earnings season investors often take close note of the volatility levels ahead of and immediately after the earnings report. 

Price Index

The Price Index is a ratio that indicates the return of a share price over a past period. The price index of Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX:IRON) for last month was 0.86792. This is calculated by taking the current share price and dividing by the share price one month ago. If the ratio is greater than 1, then that means there has been an increase in price over the month. If the ratio is less than 1, then we can determine that there has been a decrease in price. Similarly, investors look up the share price over 12 month periods. The Price Index 12m for Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX:IRON) is 0.82143.
Price Range 52 Weeks

Some of the best financial predictions are formed by using a variety of financial tools. The Price Range 52 Weeks is one of the tools that investors use to determine the lowest and highest price at which a stock has traded in the previous 52 weeks. The Price Range of Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX:IRON) over the past 52 weeks is 0.511000. The 52-week range can be found in the stock’s quote summary.

Quant Data
Shifting gears, we can see that Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX:IRON) has a Q.i. Value of 50.00000. The Q.i. Value ranks companies using four ratios. These ratios consist of EBITDA Yield, FCF Yield, Liquidity, and Earnings Yield. The purpose of the Q.i. Value is to help identify companies that are the most undervalued. Typically, the lower the value, the more undervalued the company tends to be.

Another signal that many company execs and investors don’t want to talk about is the C-Score. The C-Score is a system developed by James Montier that helps determine whether a company is involved in inflating their financial statements.  The C-Score is calculated by a variety of items, including a growing difference in net income verse cash flow, increasing days outstanding, growing days sales of inventory, increasing assets to sales, declines in depreciation, and high total asset growth.  The C-Score of Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX:IRON) is -1.00000.  The score ranges on a scale of -1 to 6.  If the score is -1, then there is not enough information to determine the C-Score.  If the number is at zero (0) then there is no evidence of fraudulent book cooking, whereas a number of 6 indicates a high likelihood of unusual activity. The C-Score assists investors in assessing the validity of financials. 

F-Score

At the time of writing, Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (TSX:IRON) has a Piotroski F-Score of 2. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

Investors might be looking at portfolio performance for the year and celebrating some big winners. Knowing the proper time to sell big winners can be just as important as knowing when to trim losses and cut out the losers. Investors may have become attached to a certain winning stock that nobody else seemed to notice. Holding on to a winner based on some type of emotion may end up hurting the portfolio down the line. Periodically reviewing the portfolio and tweaking the balance may be necessary to help maintain profits over the next year. Maybe there are some new names that seem poised to make a jump. Taking some profits from previous winners might help provide a boost of confidence to help the investor pull off the next big trade.

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